遭遇“夕阳行业”困境，石油巨头转投“白色石油”

来源：北京国际能源专家俱乐部

来源：财经十一人

现在或许到了石油巨头们重拾金属采矿生意的时候了

位于智利北部的一个锂矿

文 | Tim Treadgold

Lithium, a metal once dubbed “white petroleum” might soon draw the world’s oil companies back to a sector they abandoned decades ago — mining.

锂，一种曾被称为“白色石油”的金属也许很快就会将全球的石油巨头们拉回一个他们早在数十年前就抛弃的产业—采矿业。

It was during the 1970s that major oil producers such as ExxonMobil XOM +3.4% and BP operated a wide range of copper, uranium, zinc and titanium projects alongside their traditional petroleum business units.

早在1970年代的时候，埃克森美孚、英国石油公司等主要的石油生产商在经营传统的石油产业的同时还经营着一系列的铜，铀，锌和钛的开采项目。

The logic back then was that oil and minerals shared a common skills base of “earth sciences” such as geology and geophysics necessary to make discoveries, and common industrial abilities in the extraction and processing of raw materials.

当时的逻辑是，石油和其他矿物质都有着共同的“地球科学”技术基础，比如地质学和地球物理学在探索的过程中都是同样必要的，而在抽取和处理原材料时所需要的也都是通用的工业化技能。

01 

White Over Black

白色取代黑色

In fact the differences between the so-called soft rocks which contain oil and gas, and the hard rocks which contain most metals, were greater than the common threads, with another big difference being a different core of customers.

事实上，包含了油气的所谓的软岩石，和包括了大多数金属的硬岩石之间的差距比其他矿物之间的差别都要大，另外一项巨大的差异就是核心用户。

The oil industry also faces a rolling crisis of low prices and the threat of punitive government regulations on carbon pollution as well as the loss of customers to new energy sources such as wind and solar.

石油工业现正面临着震荡行业的一系列危机：低廉的价格，来自于政府的对于碳排放的惩罚性措施的威胁，以及原本的客户转而投入了风能和太阳能等新型能源的怀抱等等。

Electric vehicles (EVs), the fastest growing sector in transport, do not need petroleum, relying instead on a mix of metals in their batteries such lithium, the material with the nickname of “white petroleum” because in its natural form it is white.

电动汽车是运输行业成长速度最快的领域，不需要石油，取而代之的是，他们的电池依赖的是一系列混合的金属，比如说锂，这是一种因为其天然颜色属性为白色，而获得了“白色石油”的昵称的金属。

The extent of the problems confronting oil were crystallized in two events this week.

而石油行业所面临的问题也在这周发生的两个事件中显露无余。

02 

GM Switching To Lithium Power

通用转向锂电

First came news that one of the world’s biggest vehicle makers, General Motors, would stop making traditional petroleum powered vehicles in 2035, joining a trend which started in Europe where big car makers are rushing to roll out more EV.

第一个重要新闻是，世界上最大的汽车制造商之一的通用汽车，将在2035年的时候停产传统石油车，转而投身入欧洲时下正流行的大型汽车制造商们的电动车制造浪潮之中。

GM is a long way behind Tesla TSLA +0.3%, the EV leader, but it is keen to close the gap.

通用在这方面与电动汽车的领军公司特斯拉差距悬殊，但它对于缩小差距有着浓厚的兴趣。

Then came the huge losses posted by two of the world’s oil giant, ExxonMobil and BP which are being driven by activist investors to slash their carbon pollution footprints.

第二个重要新闻即世界两大石油巨子：埃克森美孚和英国石油公司发布了巨额亏损的信息，他们被一些积极的投资人们要求减少碳污染足迹。

So, on one side of this power squeeze are customers heading for the exit and on the other shareholders demanding change.

因此，在这场能源角力之中，一方面是用户涌出传统能源市场，一方面是其他的股东们要求必须做出改变了。

03 

Oil Falls While Lithium Grows

石油与锂此消彼长

In their announcements this week, ExxonMobil and BP promised to boost their investment in low carbon businesses and alternative energy.

埃克森美孚和英国石油公司在这周的公示中承诺，将会增加他们在低碳商业和非石油能源领域的投资。

ExxonMobil’s loss of $22 billion included a $19 billion write-down of underperforming oil assets. BP’s loss totaled $5.7 billion and was the first since the British oil giant was hammered by the Deepwater Horizon blow-out and oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico 11 years ago.

埃克森美孚的220亿美元的亏损中有190亿是源于石油资产的不良表现。而英国石油公司的总亏损达到了57亿美元，而这是自11年前的墨西哥湾深海钻井平台爆炸和漏油事件重创这家公司以来的首次亏损。

Dominating the problems of the oil industry are the prices of oil and gas which were flattened earlier this year by the combination of excess production and collapsed demand in the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic.

在石油行业占主导地位的问题是石油和天然气的价格在年初的时候遭遇了压制，一方面是因为过剩的产量，一方面是在早期的新冠疫情期间，需求也发生了塌陷。

Those factors saw oil fall below $20 a barrel while one futures contract briefly turned negative.

这些因素共同作用使得油价降至每桶20美元以下，而一份期货合同则一度变成了负价。

Short-term price pressures, however, are nothing compared with the long term challenge of peak oil, a term which has flicked from its original meaning of peak supply to a modern interpretation which is peak demand.

短期的价格压力和石油峰值所面临的长期挑战相比却也不足一提。石油峰值从原指代供应端的峰值而衍生出了现代的含义，即需求峰值。

Like oil, lithium has been buffeted over the past two years by excess supply and sluggish demand, but the long-term outlook for lithium is remarkably buoyant whereas oil faces a long slide downhill and a fight for market share which will see the survival of producers with the lowest costs.

和石油一样，锂也在过去的两年中因为过剩的供应量和疲软的需求量而大降价，但锂的前景却是高扬而上涨的，石油却面临着长期的下坡路，并且还需面对市场份额的白热化竞争。只有成本最低的生产者才能得以存活。

04 

Growth v Contraction

增长与收缩

A third event this week which highlighted the difference between oil and new energy was an announcement from Albemarle Corporation, one of the world’s biggest lithium miners, that it is raising $1.3 billion to accelerate growth projects in Australia, Chile and Nevada.

这周发生的第三件事也放大了石油与新能源之间的差距。世界上最大锂开采商之一雅宝公司发出声明，称其现正筹集13亿美金来加速在澳大利亚、智利和内华达州的增长项目。

Coming within hours of ExxonMobil and BP reporting big losses from oil operations the capital raising and lithium expansion plans of Albemarle demonstrated the difference between an industry in decline and one which is growing.

这则消息发布数小时前，埃克森美孚和英国石油公司刚报告从石油业务中录得巨额亏损，雅宝的融资和锂扩张计划正好向世人展现了一个衰落的行业和朝阳行业之间的沟壑。

For investors, the potential for oil companies to re-discover their interest in mining, particularly for battery metals, is another reason to keep an eye on nickel and lithium stocks.

对于投资人们而言，石油公司们可能重新开展采矿业的兴趣和潜力，尤其是那些制造蓄电池的金属的开采潜力，是他们将目光投注于镍与锂原料的又一个原因。

Acquiring a white petroleum business would be a logical move for a company such as BP which is trying to phase out of the “black petroleum” business and become a clean energy leader.

对于像英国石油这一类公司来说，将白色石油生意收入囊中是一步符合意料的棋，因为他们正致力于逐渐退出“黑色石油”生意并且转型为清洁能源的引领者。

So far the dominant clean energy investments of big oil producers have been in wind turbines, solar farms and emissions management such as carbon capture and storage.

目前在石油巨子们的清洁能源投资中占主导地位的是风力涡轮机，太阳能农场以及排放物管理，例如碳捕捉和储存技术。

Adding a lithium asset to the asset mix would be a natural step down the clean energy path.

在这些资产组合里加入锂资产也是迈向新能源道路上顺理成章的一步。

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